When it comes to sports betting, there is no such thing as a 100% sure bet.
When we talk about the concept of sure bet, we refer to the differences in betting odds provided by several bookmakers that can be exploited in order to achieve a certain profit with no concern for the outcome of the match. Sure bet doesn’t refer to a bet placed on heavy favorites.
When checking a bookmakers betting offer, use the following formula to spot a “sure bet”:
Sure bet =1/ Quote for Home Win + 1/ Quote for Draw + 1/ Quote for Away Win = <1
In order to be considered a sure bet, the result of this calculation must be less than 1 and we’ll explain why in a moment.
Let’s assume that by checking the betting offer from several sports betting providers, you find the following odds for the same match:
Home Win: 1.95
Away Win: 5.90
Now, using the formula above, we get:
1/1.95 + 1/3.80 + 1/5.90 = 0.513 + 0.263 + 0.169 = 0.945
0.945 < 1 means we got ourselves a sure bet. In other words for every 0.945 euro that we bet, we get back 1 euro. If we extend the calculations a little further we could say that for every 1 euro spend we get back 1.058 euro ( 0.944/1 = 1.058) which equals with a 5.8% ROI ( return of investment).
Let’s do the math for our example with 513 euro bet on Home Win, 263 euro on Draw and 169 euro on Away Win.
Initial investment: 513 + 263 + 169 = 945 euro
Outcome for each bet:
Home Win: 513 * 1.95 = 1000.35 euro
Draw: 263 * 3.80 = 999.4 euro
Away Win: 169 * 5.90 = 997.1 euro
So for this bet, with an initial investment of 945 euro, we could generate 52-55 euro profit.
Certain websites, like odds.at, offer odds comparison from several bookmakers making it easier for bettors to spot sure bets.